CO129-512-1 Political situation in China- and Canton 30-11-1928 - 23-5-1929 — Page 71

Enclo. No. 2.

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Manchuria, and I enclose a very interesting

memorandum, prepared by the Honourable

Dr. R. H. Kotewall, C.M.G., member of the Legislative Council of this Colony, giving the

gist of a conversation, which he had with

General Ch'an Kwing-ming on the 25th March.

You will remember that it was General Ch'an Kwing-

ming who, in August, 1922, drove Dr. Sun Yat-sen

out of Kwangtung, and that he was himself in turn

driven out of Kwangtung by Marshal Chiang Kai-shek.

He is not likely, therefore, to have any

sympathy with the Nationalist party in general or

with Marshal Chiang in particular.

Nevertheless,

his explanation of the course of events during

this year seems to be highly probable, and it is

interesting to note his prophecy that Marshal

Chiang Kai-shek is likely to be eliminated from

the political arena before this year is out; and

that Marshal Feng Yu-hsiang will not throw the

whole of his weight on the side of the Kwangsi

party, but will, as in the past, pursue the

policy of sitting on the fence, allowing the

Nanking and Kwangsi warlords to enfeeble each

other by fighting, and then coming in to impose

himself on China as supreme warlord.

will also notice that, in the opinion of General Ch'an Kwing-ming, Marshal Fêng, if he comes into power, will gather round him for his

political work "the Leftists who are as good as

Communists", and that the "Red" Russians will

then come into their own again in China.

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